In our Special Topic on Climate Change research
over the past decade, the work of Dr. Antoine Guisan ranks
at #9 by total citations and #12 by cites per paper, based
on 26 papers cited a total of 2,040 times. According
to
Essential Science IndicatorsSMfrom
Thomson
Reuters, Dr. Guisan's record includes 55
papers, the majority of which are classified under
Environment & Ecology, cited a total of 3,074 times
between January 1, 1999 and August 31, 2009.
Dr. Guisan is an Associate Professor in the Department of Ecology
& Evolution and the Institute of Geology & Paleontology at the
University of Lausanne in Switzerland. He is involved in a variety of
projects and partnerships throughout Europe, including MACIS, EcoChange,
the Marie Curie HOTSPOTS project, and the NCCR "Plant Survival"
project.
Below, ScienceWatch.com talks with Dr. Guisan about his highly cited
work as it relates to climate change.
Based on your most-cited papers, you
appear to concentrate on ecological modeling. Would you say this is a
fair assessment? What first interested you in this type of
work?
Yes, over the last decade, my work has largely concentrated on
understanding drivers of species ranges, quantifying species-environment
relationships in ecological models, and using these models ultimately for
predicting species distributions. My approach is thus deeply rooted in a
biogeographical perspective, especially centered on the concept of
Hutchinson’s environmental niche, but additionally considering
dispersal limitations, and, more recently, population dynamics. As such,
the field could also be termed predictive biogeography.
Besides a strong personal interest in all geographical aspects of ecology,
I was first brought to this field when I became involved in a project aimed
at assessing the possible impacts of climate change on biodiversity. I was
fascinated by the approaches that emerged in some seminal papers by
Australian researchers, among whom Mike P. Austin certainly still ranks
among the most prominent.
Back in 2003, your 2000 Ecological
Modelling paper, "Predictive habitat distribution models in
ecology" (Guisan A, Zimmermann NE, 135[2-3]: 147-86, 5 December 2000),
was named a New Hot Paper in the field of Environment & Ecology.
Today it has close to 1,000 cites in our database. Why do you think it
is so well cited?
Diablerets Massif. Distribution of Saxifraga oppositifolia
current climate (green) versus HadCM3 A1F1 2080 scenario
(red). Picture and graph: courtesy of Dr. Christophe
Randin.
View/download five accompanying slides and
descriptions.
PDF
Obviously, it was good timing! Such a paper was probably needed at the
time, so it rapidly became a standard in the field. Species distribution
models were still in an early phase at this time. By reviewing the main
steps and theoretical background needed for building these models, adding
much of our own experience, my co-author Niklaus Zimmermann and I proposed
the first comprehensive review (with 35 pages, it is a very long paper
compared to current standards) on predictive habitat distribution modeling.
It is probably still highly cited because many facts and thoughts it
contains are still valid today, 10 years later.
Another of your highly cited papers is your 2005
Ecology Letters paper, "Predicting species distribution:
offering more than simple habitat models." Would you tell our readers
about this paper?
The field grew very fast in the five years following Guisan &
Zimmermann (2000). This 2005 paper written with Wilfried Thuiller was
really a follow-up and complementary paper, updating our state-of-the-art
in modeling but also addressing new issues, such as global change
projections and the need to add more dynamic dimensions, including
dispersal, biotic interactions, and population dynamics.
Earlier this year, you published a paper in
Global Change Biology, "Climate change and plant
distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence." Would
you talk a little bit about this paper—your methods and
findings?
This paper originated from our interest in confronting future predictions
for mountain plants as obtained from large-scale European models based on
coarse-resolution atlas data and from models developed at more a local
scale with finer-resolution species data. We were specifically interested
to see if local models would predict persistence of some high-elevation
alpine species that were otherwise predicted to become extinct (i.e. lose
their entire suitable climatic habitats in Europe) by large-scale models.
We fit models at the two extents and resolutions, and in two areas at the
local scale, and compared the predictions for a set of common species
modeled at the two scales. Results showed that local models can predict
persistence of species, but that such persistence depends largely on the
altitudinal amplitude of the local area considered, with greater
persistence found where the elevation gradient is wider and reaching higher
elevations. My group and many colleagues in Europe (both within and outside
EcoChange) are now expanding the analyses over a much larger number of
mountain areas.
How big of a role does climate change play in the
work that you do—is it becoming more of a force to be reckoned
with?
Climate change is clearly challenging the future of biodiversity and
ecosystems, especially in mountain areas, which are expected to be
particularly sensitive in this regard. Hence, climate change is hard to
ignore in any study of species distribution. Furthermore, climate maps and
associated climate change scenarios have become increasingly available in
recent years, making these studies easier to conduct. As a result, an
increasing number of researchers, from various disciplines, are interested
in these questions and spatial predictions. Yet, deriving climate change
projections is only one application of species distribution models
addressed by my group. The main questions remain to understand what drives
species distribution and what controls the assembly of communities and
ecosystems.
Dr. Antoine Guisan
Department of Ecology & Evolution
Institute of Geology & Paleontology
University of Lausanne
Lausanne, Switzerland
Antoine Guisan's current most-cited paper in Essential Science
Indicators, with 947 cites:
Guisan A, Zimmermann NE, "Predictive habitat distribution models in
ecology," Ecol. Model. 135(2-3): 147-186, 5 December 2000. Source:
Essential Science Indicators from
Clarivate.